These were huge, precise patterns of bent stalks of wheat, corn, and barley that lent themselves to spectacular aerial photographs. Often, however, the chronological order is reversed; the observable outcome is observed, then the explanation fashioned in response to it. A Guide to Good Reasoning: Cultivating Intellectual Virtues, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, The Total Evidence Condition (1): the Improbability of the Outcome, The Total Evidence Condition (2): the Probability of the Explanation, [If we are well above sea level, then water boils quickly.]. One variable is manipulated, while others are held constant. Until then, the argument is no better than a product of Keys own imagination. WebWhich of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? ], [1001]\begin{bmatrix} a. A theory predicts events in a broad, general context; a hypothesis makes a specific prediction about a specified set of circumstances. A body of knowledge based on observation, description, experimentation, and explanation of natural phenomena. Conduct the experiment over and over again. There are, however, several useful strategies that we will discuss next. have been. Which of the following statements best distinguishes hypotheses from theories in science? The International Society of Sport Psychology developed a position paper on aggression in sport. A powerful way to demonstrate that observed differences between a treatment group and a control group truly reflect the effect of the treatment is for researchers to. This point is not lost on investment companies. These youngsters had, in fact, been selected at random from among their classmates. b. bracketed An intellectual activity, encompassing observation, description, experimentation, and explanation of natural phenomena. In the study of personality, the ________ model includes dimensions of conscientiousness, agreeableness, neuroticism, openness, and extroversion. d. a and b. e. a and c. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. Treatment: in a research study, any condition applied to subjects - those in the treatment group - that is not applied to subjects in a control group. Clearly in Afghanistan. Arthur Conan Doyle, There has recently been a startling decline in a large number of amphibian populations, apparently because UV radiation is harmful to them. Both explanations do an equally good job of entailing Periers results as their observable outcome. This tentative explanation can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments. An explanation that is designed to apply only to a single thing or event. Lucy should specialize in ________ psychology. A steady, respectable, middle-aged man, too, on the face of himall facts which led me to believe that he had been a sergeant. Wonderful! I ejaculated. d. fans become more aggressive under the influence of alcohol Develop an action plan. or she may have been secretly using a two-headed coin. The oracle tended to utter solemn pronouncements of a very unspecific sortfor example, I see grave misfortune in your future. It was almost inevitable that such a vague prediction would come true. William James was the ________. It was a tiny dent, no larger than a nickel, on the main frame of one motorcycle moving along an assembly line that produces about 175 such vehicles every day. Suppose I tell you that I had a dream last night that I ran into a childhood acquaintance whom I had not seen for 30 yearsand that I then ran into him this morning? This result can be explained by the fact that because the teachers expected them to do well, their perceptions of each students ability rose and those childrens own self-image was enhanced. David Lewis and James Greene, Thinking Better. a. I couldnt believe it was a fire. Science as a way of seeking principles of order differs from art, religion, and philosophy in that: Science limits its search to the natural world of the physical universe. The scolding and praise are no better than a fifth wheel in the argument, since the outcome is highly probable anyway. In the case study of Billy the hockey goalie, what did he learn? What is the number one occupation employing graduates with a BA in psychology? Similarly with our other cases. They must satisfy the correct form condition, but, like every other inductive argument, they would be logical failures were that their only success; they must also satisfy the total evidence condition. her own conscious experience. Explanatory Impotence Explanatory impotence is the opposite of explanatory power. Which of the following exemplifies the unconditional positive regard component of client-centered therapy? If comets were common in December, then the premises of the argument would have still been true, but they would have given us no good reason to believe the conclusion. Scientists rejected Newton, they rejected continental drift, they rejected meteorites, and they were wrong! Confirmation biasour natural tendency to look for outcomes that support our preferred explanation rather than those that might also falsify the alternatives. 6) Evolutionary adaptation leading to descent with modification over time. An experiment that makes it possible to determine decisively between alternative hypotheses. He claims he has no knowledge of the Molotov cocktail. , For many years, ship captains navigating the waters of Antarctica have been intrigued by rare sightings of emerald icebergs. Which of the following shows the correct order for a scientific explanation? WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? b. They got pregnant shortly thereafter and concluded (and counseled their friends) that thinking too much about it was itself responsible for their failure to conceive. her own conscious experience. In some cases, it can be tempting to accept an explanation with an extremely low prior probability simply because you cannot think of any plausible alternative. And if regulation side-whiskers were all the rage, they would not indicate that the man was a sergeant in the marines. When you cannot think of another explanation, it can be tempting to accept an explanatory argument even when the prior probability of the explanation is exceedingly low. a. Where, then, could the extraterrestrial have come from? A house fire victim, for example, is quoted in the newspaper as explaining, I kept smelling something, and then I saw the smoke. In a short paragraph, identify the explanation, discuss why it may be unfalsifiable, and explain how this results in a problem with the first part of the total evidence condition. c. Hypotheses usually are relatively narrow in scope; theories have broad explanatory power. Devise a testable prediction. Epistemic probability, as explained in Chapter 9, refers to the probability of the statements truth given all relevant available evidence. The independent variable is manipulated to cause-effect on the dependent variable and the dependent variable is measured to examine the effect The second part of the total evidence condition requires that you exercise the same imaginative powers as the arguer; for you must imagine which explanations would be the most credible alternatives to the one argued for. There were 15, then 8, then 4, then 2; then, after the fifth toss, this one student remained. As with the first part, there are various ways of testing for this. His argument would gain some logical strength if, when we looked for them, we could find sexual images in advertisements more often than we find them in the clouds. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. Select the correctly ordered list of psychological perspectives, with the earliest perspective listed first. The requirement that it be possible to specify some observable outcome of an explanation that could prove it to be false. Aggression is detrimental to performance. A comet with an orbit similar to the 1530 and 1606 comets did appear in December 1758. Thus, the prior probability of beating the market in a single year is roughly .50. Explanatory/ Causal /Bivariate Hypothesis. Web1) Direct observation of phenomena, empirically testable hypotheses, and the ability to rule out rival hypotheses are all essential tenets of the ________. In these cases it is better to say that you simply cannot decide, especially if the argument has not ruled out coincidence or deception as alternative explanations. But the theory of plate tectonics eventually provided a conceptual framework for continental drift, and the explanation no longer has an unacceptably low prior probability. e. superintendents, c. students with good leadership and communication skills, Which of the following is NOT an aspect of the revised frustration-aggression hypothesis? Which of the following shows the correct order for a scientific explanation? While waiting for my clothes to dry, I slipped into a robe hanging on a hook in the bathroom, and I must have thoughtlessly put my pipe into the pocket. B. Most aggression in sport falls in which of the following categories? thoughts and their relationship to our experiences and our actions. A biologist was concerned about the environmental effects of an insecticide being used in his area to kill mosquitos that carried equine encephalitis. Frustration produces increased anger or pain. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. William James was the ________. How often do plumbers waste time by doing things such as drying their clothes when they can make more money by going on to another job? b. punching an umpire because he made a bad call, "Good aggression" (playing within the rules with high intensity) is known in sport psychology as, Instrumental aggression is aggression occurring, b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal, A linebacker intends to hurt and injure any receiver who catches a ball over the middle. e. neglectful. By sheer coincidence, a few of these thousands of dreams are going to seem to come true, and these are the ones that will stick most vividly in my memory (remember the vividness shortcut from Chapter 1). Null hypothesis : this is known as the default hypothesis.It states that Fairly strong. Which of the following is not involved in critical thinking? In short, coincidence has not been ruled out, so we cannot judge this to be a logically strong argument. Rabinoff claimed that this was evidence for a causeeffect relationship between TM and the weather. Pa! exclaimed the youngster, they are getting ready to pee on the hay! Well, son, replied the father, youve got the facts all right, but have reached the wrong conclusion. Lincolns client, we are told, was acquitted. e. instrumental-reactive aggression theory, According to more recent research by Anderson and Bushman, aggression ranging from instrumental to reactive should be viewed b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. A) experiential method B) scientific method C) intuitive process D) strategic management process E) account planning philosophy B) scientific method It is easy to invent a convenient explanation for data you already have, but then to disregard failure to fully satisfy the total evidence condition. In another example, continental drift initially was reasonably rejected as the explanation for the striking biological and geological similarities between continents that are widely separated by oceans because there was no known mechanism for the drift. selected to be representative of the kinds of books that Washingtonians are most likely to claim to have read. First part: The prior probability of the prediction is extremely lowhelped especially by the inclusion of predictions (i.e., no relevant difference in food from island to island) that succeed in falsifying alternative hypotheses (i.e., that the difference is because of difference in food). My employer values me. Exploratory research is defined as a research used to investigate a problem which is not clearly defined. Theories are hypotheses that have been proved. Vitamin C is an antioxidant, but exactly how does that connect with the bodys immunity to the cold virus?). By using the control group, the alternative is ruled out that the effect is somehow induced by the test itself. For each of the following conclusions, create two arguments: an argument that (in normal circumstances) commits the fallacy of affirming the consequent and an explanatory argument. The physics of Descartes still dominated science, and it would be several decades before Newtons views completely won out. So far as I know, officials have not used backward code words in their public speeches, so the prior probability of the explanation is exceedingly low. A. Add a moving part to the machine, and the probability that every part will work drops dramatically. Lucy wants to study changes in cognitive skills, moral reasoning, and social behavior across the lifespan. But the editors at. Newtons theories, for example, while applied here to Halleys comet, actually cover the motion of all objects at all times. Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. . It is conducted to have a better understanding of the existing problem, but will not provide conclusive results. I was being more careful about my health because I was engaged in the experiment. Sample exercise. This applies to both singular and general explanations. Complete each Another way to put this is to ask whether there is a satisfactory conceptual framework for the general explanationand whether it is more satisfactory than the alternatives. e. all of the above. This supports which theory of aggression? Which of the following defines hypothesis? Experts are tested by Chegg as specialists in their subject area. In 1695, Edmund Halley began to ponder whether Newtons account of celestial mechanics was correct and, in particular, whether it applied to the motion of comets. . An explanatory hypothesis is a type of hypothesis which is used to test the cause and effect relationship between two or more than two variables. A later investigation showed that there was indeed a correlation between TM and warmer weather, but an even stronger correlation between TM and the preceding afternoons forecast of warmer weather for the next day. hypothesis? Periers barometer reads 30 inches at 0 feet, 28.7 inches at 1,300 feet, 28.2 inches at 1,800 feet, 27.2 inches at 2,800 feet, 26.2 inches at 3,800 feet, and 25.2 inches at 4,800 feet. Observable outcomewhat is explained in an explanatory argument; the observable outcome follows from the explanation and can in a certain way, at a certain time, and under certain conditions, be seen, heard, smelled, tasted, or touched. a. instinct theory OK, so shes not admitting to anything, but the next day when I went to get the pipe, it wasnt where I had put it! . First: make observations; Last: Interpret data. Which of the following is an example of an objective measure used by functionalists? . a. athletes view aggressive acts that would be judged inappropriate in society in general as more appropriate in the sport environment The first part of the total evidence condition is that the observable outcome must have a low prior epistemic probability. How to Think about High Enough Prior Probability of Explanation. is true. Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. 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